{"id":9170,"date":"2005-09-30T11:16:19","date_gmt":"2005-09-30T16:16:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.discovermagazine.com\/cosmicvariance\/2005\/09\/30\/doomsday-clock\/"},"modified":"2005-09-30T11:16:19","modified_gmt":"2005-09-30T16:16:19","slug":"doomsday-clock","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/2005\/09\/30\/doomsday-clock\/","title":{"rendered":"Doomsday clock"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s the 60th anniversary of the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.thebulletin.org\/index.htm\"><em>Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists<\/em><\/a>, which premiered in December, 1945, just a few months after atomic bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.  The goal of the magazine has always been simple, if somewhat ambitious:  to save the world by working to minimize the threat of nuclear war.  It came out of a time when physicists were central players in questions of international security.<\/p>\n<p><img class=\"alignright\" src='http:\/\/blogs.discovermagazine.com\/cosmicvariance\/files\/uploads\/atomic_clock_seven_min_left.jpg' alt='Doomsday Clock' \/>The most famous product of the <em>Bulletin<\/em> is of course the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.thebulletin.org\/doomsday_clock\/index.htm\">Doomsday Clock<\/a>, an iconic image that is far more famous than the magazine itself.  The minute hand on the clock moves in response to the perceived danger of imminent global disaster.  It&#8217;s fascinating to peek back at the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.thebulletin.org\/doomsday_clock\/timeline.htm\">timeline<\/a> for the evolution of the clock, as it bounces back and forth in response to world events.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>1947: Seven minutes to midnight.<\/strong> Chosen mostly for artistic reasons, apparently.  The original conception didn&#8217;t include the idea that the clock would actually move to reflect developments in international security. <\/li>\n<li><strong>1949: Three minutes to midnight.<\/strong> The Soviet Union explodes its first atomic bomb. <\/li>\n<li><strong>1953: Two minutes to midnight.<\/strong> The US and USSR explode hydrogen bombs. <\/li>\n<li><strong>1960: Seven minutes to midnight.<\/strong> International cooperation to check the growth of nuclear weapons grows. <\/li>\n<li><strong>1963: Twelve minutes to midnight.<\/strong> The US and USSR sign the Partial Test Ban Treaty, the first international arms-control agreement.  (For some reason, the <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Cuban_missile_crisis\">Cuban Missile Crisis<\/a> doesn&#8217;t seem to have really registered &#8212; possibly it came and went too quickly.) <\/li>\n<li><strong>1968: Seven minutes to midnight.<\/strong> France and China acquire nuclear weapons; arms stockpiles increase while development aid to developing nations languishes. <\/li>\n<li><strong>1969: Ten minutes to midnight.<\/strong> The US Senate ratifies the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. <\/li>\n<li><strong>1972: Twelve minutes to midnight.<\/strong> The US and USSR sign the first Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT I). <\/li>\n<li><strong>1974: Nine minutes to midnight.<\/strong> Arms control talks stall; India develops a nuclear weapon. <\/li>\n<li><strong>1980: Seven minutes to midnight.<\/strong> Small wars and terrorist activities grow, while arms-control talks remain stuck. <\/li>\n<li><strong>1981: Four minutes to midnight.<\/strong> Terrorism and repression of human rights grows, along with conflicts in multiple theaters around the world. <\/li>\n<li><strong>1984: Three minutes to midnight.<\/strong> Arms race picks up steam. <\/li>\n<li><strong>1988: Six minutes to midnight.<\/strong> The US and USSR sign a treaty limiting intermediate-range nuclear weapons. <\/li>\n<li><strong>1990: Ten minutes to midnight.<\/strong> Democracy flourishes in Eastern Europe; Cold War ends! <\/li>\n<li><strong>1991: Seventeen minutes to midnight.<\/strong> The clock leaps dramatically backward as the Cold War remains over, and the US and USSR announce signficant cuts in nuclear stockpiles. <\/li>\n<li><strong>1995: Fourteen minutes to midnight.<\/strong> Turns out that the peace dividend wasn&#8217;t quite what it might have been, as arms spending continues at Cold War levels.  Fear grows of proliferation of nuclear weapons from poorly-controled facilities in the former Soviet Union. <\/li>\n<li><strong>1998: Nine minutes to midnight.<\/strong> India and Pakistan go public with nuclear weapons. <\/li>\n<li><strong>2002: Seven minutes to midnight.<\/strong> The U.S. rejects a series of arms control treaties and announces its withdrawal from the ABM treaty.  Significant concerns about proliferation of nuclear weapons to terrorists.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>So we&#8217;re right back where we started.  If you don&#8217;t agree with the positioning of the clock as decided upon by the <em>Bulletin&#8217;s<\/em> board, you can always consult the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.raptureready.com\/rap2.html\">Rapture Index<\/a> for an alternative take on the imminence of Armageddon.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s the 60th anniversary of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, which premiered in December, 1945, just a few months after atomic bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The goal of the magazine has always been simple, if somewhat ambitious: to save the world by working to minimize the threat of nuclear war. It [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,38],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9170","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-science-and-politics","category-world"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9170","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9170"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9170\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9170"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9170"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9170"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}