{"id":368,"date":"2004-09-03T10:46:00","date_gmt":"2004-09-03T17:46:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/probability-of-discovery\/"},"modified":"2004-09-03T10:46:00","modified_gmt":"2004-09-03T17:46:00","slug":"probability-of-discovery","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/2004\/09\/03\/probability-of-discovery\/","title":{"rendered":"Probability of discovery"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I&#8217;m always on the lookout for ways to make money off of my esoteric physics knowledge.  Here&#8217;s one:  you can bet on the chance that a big physics experiment will discover something by a certain date.  Inspired by an article in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.newscientist.com\/news\/news.jsp\">New Scientist<\/a> on large physics experiments, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ladbrokes.com\/lbr_portal?action=do_lang_splash&#038;form_name=lang_splash&#038;LANG=en&#038;STYLE=en&#038;VIEW=uk&#038;LAYOUT=default\">Ladbrokes<\/a> betting agency is placing odds on <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ladbrokes.com\/lbr_sports?action=go_type&#038;category=SPECIALS&#038;class_id=210000126&#038;type_\">various possibilities<\/a>, and taking cash bets up until Sept. 6th.  The four bets up there now are:  <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ligo.caltech.edu\" \/>LIGO<\/a> discovering gravitational waves by 2010 at 2-1; understanding the origin of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.auger.org\" \/>cosmic rays<\/a> (presumably they mean ultra-high-energy cosmic rays) by 2010 also at 2-1; discovery of the <a href=\"http:\/\/lutece.fnal.gov\/Drafts\/Higgs.html\">Higgs boson<\/a> by the ATLAS experiment at CERN&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/lhc-new-homepage.web.cern.ch\/lhc-new-homepage\" \/>Large Hadron Collider<\/a> by 2010 at 3-1; and completion of a working fusion power station by 2010 at 40-1.  Personally I would happily wager 100 pounds to win 300 on the Higgs being discovered, although I&#8217;m not sure what happens if the CMS experiment finds it rather than ATLAS.  A fusion power plant is very unlikely.  I don&#8217;t know what counts as &#8220;understanding&#8221; cosmic rays, so I&#8217;d be a little leery of that one.  LIGO finding gravitational waves by 2010 is a trickier one &#8212; everybody things gravitational waves are out there, so the bet depends more on the technological progress (and funding) of the observatory, which is hard to predict.<br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I&#8217;m always on the lookout for ways to make money off of my esoteric physics knowledge. Here&#8217;s one: you can bet on the chance that a big physics experiment will discover something by a certain date. Inspired by an article in New Scientist on large physics experiments, Ladbrokes betting agency is placing odds on various [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-368","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-miscellany"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/368","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=368"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/368\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=368"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=368"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=368"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}