{"id":305,"date":"2004-10-25T14:38:00","date_gmt":"2004-10-25T21:38:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/predicting-the-election\/"},"modified":"2004-10-25T14:38:00","modified_gmt":"2004-10-25T21:38:00","slug":"predicting-the-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/2004\/10\/25\/predicting-the-election\/","title":{"rendered":"Predicting the election"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Honestly, I think it&#8217;s a dead heat &#8212; a statistical tie, too close to call, too uncertain to prognosticate.  And wishful thinking is a powerful drug.  But I&#8217;m not too proud to take heart in this graph, from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.econ.umn.edu\/~amoro\/Research\/presprobs.html\">Andrea Moro<\/a> at the University of Minnesota.<\/p>\n<p><center><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/preposterousuniverse.com\/images\/probhistory.png\" \/><\/center><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Honestly, I think it&#8217;s a dead heat &#8212; a statistical tie, too close to call, too uncertain to prognosticate. And wishful thinking is a powerful drug. But I&#8217;m not too proud to take heart in this graph, from Andrea Moro at the University of Minnesota.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-305","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-miscellany"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/305","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=305"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/305\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=305"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=305"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/preposterousuniverse.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=305"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}