4th of July Higgs Update

That is to say, CERN is going to share with us what the most recent LHC data are saying about the Higgs (and whatever else might have popped up, I guess) in a seminar on July 4th at CERN itself, just before the ICHEP conference in Melbourne. Excerpt from the press release:

If and when a new particle is discovered, ATLAS and CMS will need time to ascertain whether it is the long sought Higgs boson, the last missing ingredient of the Standard Model of particle physics, or whether it is a more exotic form of the boson that could open the door to new physics.

“It’s a bit like spotting a familiar face from afar,” said CERN Director General Rolf Heuer, “sometimes you need closer inspection to find out whether it’s really your best friend, or actually your best friend’s twin.”

Suggestive.

There’s been a lot of talking back and forth about the ethics of trafficking in rumors, and I don’t mean the jokey kind. Personally I think it’s pretty simple: if a collaboration of thousands of physicists wants to keep their results quiet until they are ready to announce them, that’s completely their right. I’m not going to pass along anonymous tips — if the tippers didn’t understand that they were doing something wrong, they wouldn’t stay anonymous. The rumors aren’t part of keeping the public informed; there’s plenty of time for that once the actual results are released.

Which will happen very soon! Whatever the answers may be, it’s a great accomplishment for the LHC folks to have come this far.

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It’s a Girl Thing

Update: Ha! They took down the video. Fortunately it’s copied here. The EU commission has acknowledged its goof, and wants to make a list of real women scientists.

I can’t come up with a better phrase for this video than Peter Coles did: “patronizing drivel.” And YouTube users — not always the most discriminating bunch — agree, giving it “55 likes, 1,848 dislikes.”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZtMmt5rC6g

They mean well. It’s a video from the European Commission on Research and Innovation, trying to get girls interested in science. A noble goal, and we should be thinking of innovative ways to make it happen.

The problem is that whoever made the video clearly starts from the assumption that girls hate actual science, and therefore the route to increasing their interest is to pretend that science is all about lipstick and sunglasses and runway models draped in pink. Science isn’t actually about that. But science is interesting! For girls and boys alike.

If you want to make science seem exciting to girls, it helps to start from a perspective that science is interesting to all human beings, and that girls are human beings.

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Paying for Creativity

Over on Facebook, a single blog post was linked to by four different friends of mine: a physicist, a science writer/spouse, a saxophone player, and a screenwriter. Clearly something has struck a nerve!

The common thread binding together these creative people who make a living off of their creative work is the impact of technology on how we distribute intellectual property. In other words: do you ever pay for music any more?

Emily White doesn’t. She’s an intern at NPR’s All Things Considered, where she wrote a blog post saying that she “owns” over 11,000 songs, but has only paid for about 15 CD’s in her entire life. The rest were copied from various sources or shared over the internet. She understands that the people who made the music she loves deserve to be paid for their work, and she’s willing to do so — but only if it’s convenient, and apparently the click it takes to purchase from iTunes doesn’t qualify.

The brilliant (and excessively level-headed) response that my friends all linked to was penned by David Lowery. He makes the case much better than I would have, so read him. Making the case is necessary; there is a long tail of compensation in creative fields, and we’re all familiar with the multi-millionaires, so it’s easy to forget the much larger numbers of people sweating to earn a decent living. Not everyone has the ability to create work that other people are willing to pay for, of course; the universe does not owe you the right to earn money from your writing or thinking or playing. But when other people appreciate and benefit from your stuff, you do have a right to be compensated, I think.

Coincidentally, today I stumbled across a book that I didn’t know existed — one about me! Or at least, one whose title is my name. Since nobody other than my Mom thinks I deserve to have a book written about me, my curiosity was piqued.

Turns out that the book (apparently) isn’t so much about me, as a collection of things I have written, supplemented by Wikipedia pages. None of which I knew about at all. In other words, for $60 you can purchase a 160-page book of things you can find on the internet for free. There is a company, VDM Publishing, that specializes in churning such things out via print-on-demand. Turning Wikipedia pages into a book is bizarre and disreputable, but possibly legal. Taking blog posts and articles I have written and including them in the book is straight-up illegal, I’m afraid.

Fortunately, I’m not losing much value here, as only a crazy person would pay $60 for an unauthorized collection of Wikipedia articles and blog posts, and I like to think that my target audience is mostly non-crazy people. But it’s a bad sign, I would think. Stuff like this is only going to become more popular.

Don’t let that dissuade you from purchasing highly authorized collections of very good blog posts! For example The Best Science Writing Online 2012, appearing this September. No posts from Cosmic Variance this year, but I have it on good authority that the editor worked really hard to make this a standout collection.

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Dismal Global Equilibria

The Civilization series of games takes players through the course of history, allowing them to guide a society/nation from way back in prehistory up through the near future (say, 2100). You develop technologies, choose political systems, and raise armies. There are various ways to “win” the game: military conquest, achieving a just and happy society, or building a spaceship that will travel to Alpha Centauri. It’s a great pastime for any of us who harbor the suspicion that the world would be a better place if we were installed as a benevolent dictator.

Although the game is supposed to take you to the near future, apparently (I’ve never played) you can keep going if you choose to. Which is exactly what one commenter at Reddit did: he has been nursing a single game of Civilization II for ten years now, bringing his virtual global society up to the year 3991 AD. (Via It’s Okay to Be Smart, a wonderful blog.) At which point we may ask: what have we learned?

The news is not good. If you’ve ever read 1984, the outcome will be eerily familiar. I can do no better than quote:

  • The world is a hellish nightmare of suffering and devastation.
  • There are 3 remaining super nations in the year 3991 A.D, each competing for the scant resources left on the planet after dozens of nuclear wars have rendered vast swaths of the world uninhabitable wastelands.
  • The ice caps have melted over 20 times (somehow) due primarily to the many nuclear wars. As a result, every inch of land in the world that isn’t a mountain is inundated swamp land, useless to farming. Most of which is irradiated anyway.

It gets better from there.

What we actually learn about is the structure of the game. We have one player against the computer (who manages multiple civilizations), each with certain goals — a paradigmatic game theory problem. Such games can have “equilibrium strategies,” where no player can make a unilateral change that would improve their situation. Assuming that this player isn’t simply missing something, it’s likely that the game has reached one such equilibrium. That could be the only equilibrium, or there could be a happier one that might have been reached by making different decisions along the way.

What we would like to learn, but can’t, is whether this has any relevance to the real globe. It might! But maybe not. The Earth isn’t a closed system, so the “escape to another planet” option is on the table. But the Solar System is quite finite, and largely forbidding, and other stars are really far away. So limiting our attention to the Earth alone isn’t necessarily a bad approximation.

Right now the human population of the Earth is very far from equilibrium, either politically, or technologically, or socially, or simply in terms of sheer numbers. A real equilibrium wouldn’t be burning through finite resources like fossil fuels at such a prodigious rate, continually inventing new technologies, and constantly re-arranging its political map. But it’s possible (probably unlikely) that we could reach a quasi-equilibrium state in another couple of centuries. With a system as complicated as human civilization on Earth, naive extrapolation of past trends toward the future isn’t likely to tell us much. But “sustainable” isn’t a synonym for “desirable.” If there could be such a near-term equilibrium, would it be a happy one, or the game-prognosticated future of endless war and suffering?

Not clear. I have some measure of optimism, based on the idea that real people wouldn’t simply persist in the same cycles of conflict and misery for indefinite periods of time. It only seems that way sometimes.

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Higgs Progress

The Large Hadron Collider has been humming along this year, collecting about 5 inverse femtobarns of data, similar to what they had all last year, at a slightly higher energy (8 TeV vs. 7 TeV). Of course last year we were treated to tantalizing hints of a Higgs boson with a mass of about 125 GeV, so it’s natural to ask whether that evidence has been continuing to accumulate. Answers should be forthcoming early in July at the International Conference on High Energy Physics in Melbourne, where talks are scheduled from both CMS and ATLAS.

I believe, given the short time available, that each collaboration can update us on the results from this year’s run thus far, but it will probably take longer to combine the results from the two experiments, as well as combining with last year’s data. (Combining results sounds straightforward, but is actually extremely subtle, due to separate kinds of systematic effects for the different experiments, or even the same experiment at different energies.) Presumably that means that we can accumulate new evidence for the Higgs, but it would be surprising if they were actually able to announce a discovery. I’m also told that the analysis of this year’s data thus far has been “blind” — i.e., they add a secret offset to the real data so that all of the reduction and background subtraction can be carried out without bias, and only then do they “open the box” and see what the actual data are saying. If this is true, literally nobody in the world knows right now what the LHC has actually been seeing, as far as the Higgs is concerned. But we’ll find out before too long.

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Dark Matter vs. Aether

This is an easier one than dark matter vs. modified gravity. As mentioned, I’m going to be on Science Friday today, and they asked me to contribute a guest blog post, which I’m cross-posting below. Old news, I’m sure, for longtime CV readers, but here you go.

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Probably the biggest single misconception I come across in popular discussions of dark matter and dark energy is the accusation that these concepts are a return to the discredited idea of the aether. They are not — in fact, they are precisely the opposite.

Back in the later years of the 19th century, physicists had put together an incredibly successful synthesis of electricity and magnetism, topped by the work of James Clerk Maxwell. They had managed to show that these two apparently distinct phenomena were different manifestations of a single underlying “electromagnetism.” One of Maxwell’s personal triumphs was to show that this new theory implied the existence of waves traveling at the speed of light — indeed, these waves are light, not to mention radio waves and X-rays and the rest of the electromagnetic radiation spectrum.

The puzzle was that waves were supposed to represent oscillations in some underlying substance, like water waves on an ocean. If light was an electromagnetic wave, what was “waving”? The proposed answer was the aether, sometimes called the “luminiferous aether” to distinguish it from the classical element. This idea had a direct implication: that Maxwell’s description of electromagnetism would be appropriate as long as we were at rest with respect to the aether, but that its predictions (for the speed of light, for example) would change as we moved through the aether. The hunt was to find experimental evidence for this idea, but attempts came up short. The Michelson-Morley experiment, in particular, implied that the speed of light did not change as the Earth moved through space, in apparent contradiction with the aether idea.

So the aether was a theoretical idea that never found experimental support. In 1905 Einstein pointed out how to preserve the symmetries of Maxwell’s equations without referring to aether at all, in the special theory of relativity, and the idea was relegated to the trash bin of scientific history.

Aether was a concept introduced by physicists for theoretical reasons, which died because its experimental predictions were ruled out by observation. Dark matter and dark energy are the opposite: they are concepts that theoretical physicists never wanted, but which are forced on us by the observations.

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Evolution, Entropy, and Information

Okay, sticking to my desire to blog rather than just tweet (we’ll see how it goes): here’s a great post by John Baez with the forbidding title “Information Geometry, Part 11.” But if you can stomach a few equations, there’s a great idea being explicated, which connects evolutionary biology to entropy and information theory.

There are really two points. The first is a bit of technical background you can ignore if you like, and skip to the next paragraph. It’s the idea of “relative entropy” and its equivalent “information” formulation. Information can be thought of as “minus the entropy,” or even better “the maximum entropy possible minus the actual entropy.” If you know that a system is in a low-entropy state, it’s in one of just a few possible microstates, so you know a lot about it. If it’s high-entropy, there are many states that look that way, so you don’t have much information about it. (Aside to experts: I’m kind of shamelessly mixing Boltzmann entropy and Gibbs entropy, but in this case it’s okay, and if you’re an expert you understand this anyway.) John explains that the information (and therefore also the entropy) of some probability distribution is always relative to some other probability distribution, even if we often hide that fact by taking the fiducial probability to be uniform (… in some variable). The relative information between two distributions can be thought of as how much you don’t know about one distribution if you know the other one; the relative information between a distribution and itself is zero.

The second point has to do with the evolution of populations in biology (or in analogous fields where we study the evolution of populations), following some ideas of John Maynard Smith. Make the natural assumption that the rate of change of a population is proportional to the number of organisms in that population, where the “constant” of proportionality is a function of all the other populations. That is: imagine that every member of the population breeds at some rate that depends on circumstances. Then there is something called an evolutionarily stable state, one in which the relative populations (the fraction of the total number of organisms in each species) is constant. An equilibrium configuration, we might say.

Then the take-home synthesis is this: if you are not in an evolutionarily stable state, then as your population evolves, the relative information between the actual state and the stable one decreases with time. Since information is minus entropy, this is a Second-Law-like behavior. But the interpretation is that the population is “learning” more and more about the stable state, until it achieves that state and knows all there is to know!

Okay, you can see why tweeting is seductive. Without the 140-character limit, it’s hard to stop typing, even if I try to just link and give a very terse explanation. Hopefully I managed to get all the various increasing/decreasing pointing in the right direction…

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Science Friday Tomorrow

Tomorrow (Friday, that is, in case it needed specifying) I’ll be on Science Friday as part of a discussion of dark matter vs. modified gravity, as well as NASA’s new gifts from the spymasters. I think most places SciFri is at 3:00 Eastern/Noon Pacific, and my little segment is scheduled for 20-minutes-past-ish.

Live radio! Anything can happen, really.

Also, I’m embarking on a new campaign to get more content on the blog by turning things I tend to simply Tweet into tiny blogposts. For example.

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