Cafe Scientifique Chicago

You may have read celebrated and successful bloggers such as Mark and PZ Myers enthusing about the “Cafe Scientifique” idea. It’s an attempt, international in scope but local in focus, to promote discussion about exciting scientific ideas between experts and non-experts in an informal environment. By “in an informal environment” we typically mean “in a bar,” although I suppose an actual cafe or similar venue would do just as well. The original Cafes were located in England, but the idea has subsequently taken off and spread around the world. It’s similar in spirit to KC Cole’s Categorically Not series that Clifford has mentioned.

So now it’s our turn. Randy Landsberg at the University of Chicago has taken up the challenge of organizing a Cafe Scientifique in the Windy City, and the first meeting will be this Wednesday at the Map Room, a neighborhood bar famous for its dizzyingly diverse beer list. I’ll be the speaker, although the speaking is not the focus of the event. I’ll talk for about twenty minutes, followed by a break to give everyone a chance to refill their drinks, culminating in an extensive discussion/Q&A session where everyone gets a chance to talk the ideas through. The particular idea to be discussed is one of my favorites: Why is the past different from the future? We’ll talk about entropy and the arrow of time in our everyday lives, and connect it to big speculative ideas about the origin of the universe. Should be fun! And if everyone gets along, this will undoubtedly be the first of many events, and before too long the El will be alive with intense discussions about dispatches from the frontiers of science.

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Physicists against the nuclear option

Via digby: Jorge Hirsch at UC San Diego has gathered a few of his friends — Nobel Laureates, Boltzmann and Fields Medalists, Medal of Science winners, and past Presidents of the American Physical Society — to write a letter to President Bush, urging him not to use nuclear weapons against Iran. The signatories are:

  • Philip Anderson, professor of physics at Princeton University and Nobel Laureate in Physics
  • Michael Fisher, professor of physics at the Institute for Physical Science and Technology, University of Maryland and Wolf Laureate in Physics
  • David Gross, professor of theoretical physics and director of the Kavli Institute of Physics at the University of California, Santa Barbara and Nobel Laureate in Physics
  • Jorge Hirsch, professor of physics at the University of California, San Diego
  • Leo Kadanoff, professor of physics and mathematics at the University of Chicago and recipient of the National Medal of Science
  • Joel Lebowitz, professor of mathematics and physics, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey and Boltzmann Medalist
  • Anthony Leggett, professor of physics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and Nobel Laureate, Physics
  • Eugen Merzbacher, professor of physics, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and former president, American Physical Society
  • Douglas Osheroff, professor of physics and applied physics, Stanford University and Nobel Laureate, Physics
  • Andrew Sessler, former director of Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory and former president, American Physical Society
  • George Trilling, professor of physics, University of California, Berkeley, and former president, American Physical Society
  • Frank Wilczek, professor of physics, MIT and Nobel Laureate, Physics
  • Edward Witten, professor of physics, Institute for Advanced Study and Fields Medalist

In reality, winning a Nobel Prize doesn’t make you an informed judge of geopolitical affairs. But anyone in their right mind can see it would be a bad idea to launch a nuclear first strike against Iran or anyone else, and these folks are in their right minds. Hopefully they can lend some heft and gather some publicity for the cause.

Part of me wonders whether the administration understands perfectly well that a nuclear strike would be madness, but they want to give the impression of being reckless cowboys so that Iran will dismantle their nuclear program — that’s a hopeless plan, of course, but at least not wildly irreponsible. Then I remember that they have consistently acted like reckless cowboys in every previous situation, and my heart sinks a little. Remember DeLong’s Law: “The Bush Administration is always worse than one imagines, even when taking into account DeLong’s Law.”

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String Theory, With a View Towards Reality

The Arthur H. Compton Lectures are a great tradition at the Enrico Fermi Institute here at the University of Chicago. Twice each academic year, a postdoc (!) from the EFI gives a series of 8-10 lectures on Saturday mornings, aimed at the general public, on a topic of current scientific interest. The EFI focuses on research in particle physics, astrophysics, and gravitation, so that’s what the lectures tend to cover. They are a great resource, and it’s amazing to see over a hundred people from the community trudge to a lecture hall every Saturday morning to hear about modern physics.

This Spring’s lectures are being given by Nick Halmagyi, a string theorist whose office is right across from mine. The title is String Theory: With a View Towards Reality, and Nick is gradually putting notes and slides online. With two lectures gone by, reality itself has been the focus thus far, as Nick sets up the current state of particle physics. String theory will undoubtedly follow, and when the moment comes to draw the connection between the two time will probably have run out.

Previous Compton lecturers are a distinguished lot, including our very own Risa. The EFI does a terrible job at keeping them online, but I was able to dig up slides from a few recent lecture series.

Any recent ones with online slides that I missed, let me know. And if you’re in the neighborhood, anyone is welcome to come to Nick’s lectures, which are at 11 a.m. most Saturdays. He speaks with a distinct Australian accent, but it’s ususally possible to understand him.

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Experimental sociology

A little late, but I didn’t want to let slip this interesting discussion about the agonizing process of making experimental particle physics results ready for public consumption from Tommaso Dorigo and Gordon Watts. You’ll recall that we mentioned a couple of weeks ago the new results from Fermilab’s Tevatron on B-mixing, a measurement that puts interesting new constraints on the possibilities for physics beyond the Standard Model. The first announcement was from the D0 (“D-Zero”) experiment; as Collin pointed out in the comments, the CDF experiment followed with their own results soon thereafter.

From the CDF point of view, this is not how things are supposed to be; CDF is supposed to get there first, and D0 is supposed to confirm their results. Speaking from the CDF side, Tommaso talks about the process:

The publication process of CDF data analyses is baroque, bordering the grotesque. Once a group finalizes their result and presents it at internal meetings, the result has to be blessed. This involves three rounds of scrutiny, the full documentation of the analysis in internal notes, and often the fight with skeptics who like to sit at meetings and play “shoot the sitting duck” with the unfortunate colleague presenting the result. Usually, when an important result is on, the physicists who produced it are asked to perform additional checks of various kinds, and defend it with internal referees. When all of that is through, and not a day earlier, the result can be shown at Physics conferences.

After that happens, one would like to get the result on a Physics journal as soon as possible – to be cited!!! But just then, another much longer nightmare starts, when a process called “godparenting” begins and three knowledgeable colleagues (the godparents) are designated to scrutinize every detail of the work. Then a draft paper is produced, and in the following two weeks all the collaborators can play “shoot the duck” in written form, by sending criticism and demanding yet more checks. Then a second draft follows, and the process repeats…. In the end, usually six months pass between the blessing of a result at the physics meeting and the forwarding of a paper to a journal.

Gordon, from the D0 side, agrees with the general outline.

I don’t think it is that much different than what CDF has to go through — perhaps a bit more streamlined. We are all afraid that something wrong will make it out; hence all the layers of cross checking that go on. All of the collaboration is on the author list; this is the way the collaboration makes sure that the results that get out are correct. It can be a pain!

Read the whole things.

Of course there’s a lot more to the sociology of particle physics experiments than deciding when to release results. Interestingly, there are a lot of great books that take high-energy experiments and experimenters as their source material. Even novels — I recently read A Hole in Texas by Herman Wouk (best known for The Caine Mutiny and The Winds of War). It’s a short book set in the aftermath of the cancellation of the Superconducting Super Collider, imagining the hysteria if China managed to beat us to the Higgs boson. As a novel, I’ve read better; the romantic and political plots are somewhat perfunctory and not very believable. (And obviously written by a man; where else can you find no fewer than three attractive and accomplished women throwing themselves at a somewhat over-the-hill and not especially charming male physicist?) But the physics is surprisingly good; Wouk really put some effort into getting it right, including field trips to Fermilab and the SSC site.

And then you have your honest social-science explorations of the anthropology of the tribe of particle physicists. Beamtimes and Lifetimes, by anthropologist Sharon Traweek, treats HEP experimenters the same way we would treat an isolated tribe in the Amazon jungle, trying to figure out what makes them tick. (I’m still not sure.) But for my money, far and away the most insightful book is Nobel Dreams by Gary Taubes, the story of how Carlo Rubbia smashed the competition, not always using the most fair-minded tactics, to discover the W boson and win the Nobel Prize. Oh yes, and how he then failed to win another Nobel for discovering supersymmetry, despite repeatedly suggesting that his UA1 experiment had found evidence for it. A fascinating read, one that makes you tremble at the ambition of Rubbia and his lieutenants, admire the superhuman dedication of the many physicists on the project, and thank your lucky stars that your own working hours are a bit more sensible.

Update: Tommaso and Gordon explain more about the physics of the result.

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Thank Stanislav Petrov Day

Stanislav Evgrafovich Petrov is arguably the most influential person who ever lived, although I had never heard of him until seeing this post on Cynical-C and this tribute.

Our story unfolds on September 26, 1983. Lieutenant Colonel Petrov was the officer on duty at the Serpukhov-15 bunker near Moscow with the responsibility of alerting Soviet command if there was any indication that the U.S. had launched a nuclear missile strike against the U.S.S.R. The response, of course, would be massive retaliation, and the deaths of many millions of people.

Just after midnight, the computers indicated that an American missile had been launched. Petrov was skeptical, since it wouldn’t make much sense to just launch a single missile. However, soon thereafter, the computer indicated that another four missiles had been launched.

To make a long story short (see Wikipedia for more), Petrov decided that the multiple launches were still a computer error rather than a real attack, and declined to alert his superiors, putting the Soviet Union at risk if he were mistaken. As it turned out, Petrov was right, and he had certainly averted an accidental worldwide catastrophe. But he had disobeyed procedure in the process; his superiors gave him a reprimand and reassigned him to a lower-profile post. The entire incident was kept secret until 1998.

Stanislav Petrov

Forget Easter, here’s a guy who deserves our thanks.

The question is: what would you have done? Presume that you were in an equivalent situtation, responsible for the defense of your country, a mission in which you believed with all your heart. But you have no desire to have millions of people die unnecessarily. How certain would you have to be that an attack was actually occuring before you would set massive retaliation in motion? Fifty-fifty? 100-1? A million to one? Or would you never retaliate, knowing that your decision would lead to hundreds of nuclear warheads raining down on your homeland, and your mortal enemy presumably taking over the world?

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Defending science

Greetings from New Mexico, where I selflessly rise early to share a couple of items on the fight-to-save-honest-science front:

  • At Daily Kos, DarkSyde has an interview with Representative Brad Miller (D-NC) about his efforts to ferret out instances of the overt politicization of science within the administration (as we mentioned before). He wants to gather enough evidence to hold an investigation by the House Science Committee.
  • Phil Plait points us to Defend Science, a group that is holding protests and circulating a petition decrying attacks on objective scientific thinking within the U.S. I personally wasn’t that fond of the way the petition itself was written — a little too overheated, with a lot of capital letters — but it’s absolutely a worthy cause, and I am happy to go along.

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Books!

A couple of publishing events of possible interest to CV readers:

  1. As an interesting experiment in web publishing, Robert Frenay’s new book Pulse is being fully published online. The book is about the future of computers, technology, and complex systems, so its appearance in blog form makes a certain kind of sense.
  2. Morse and Feshbach’s Methods of Theoretical Physics, a classic textbook and reference, has been reprinted after being out of circulation for a while. At almost $300, it’s not really an impulse buy, but you do get two volumes of about 1000 pages each. The reprinting was done under the supervision of Mark Feshbach, son of co-author Herman Feshbach.

Truth in advertising compels me to admit that I have not read either of these books! Nor I am getting anything for mentioning them, so it’s not really “advertising.” But both events are interesting.

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How quickly can Iran get the bomb?

Obviously a lot of smart and well-informed people have been thinking about this. Many, like Juan Cole, think that the Iranians are nowhere close to a bomb; ThinkProgress is slightly less sanguine. They are taking the trouble to make this argument because the US is claiming that it would only take 16 days for Iran to make a bomb. There are all sorts of reasons to disbelieve this particular claim: a history of crying wolf, an apparent misunderstanding of the concept of significant figures… Still, is it more like ten days, or ten years?

Steinn Sigurðsson looks at the problem as a physicist, and isn’t optimistic.

I don’t know Iran; I don’t have access to any classified information on nuclear weapons.
I do know something about physics…

First of all, Iran is clearly been working on putting together a full nuclear cycle for about 20 years

That means they want to be able to do it all in-house: mining, enrichment, burning, plutonium extraction, power generation and bomb production.

It is clear that they did the science in the early-to-mid-90s, they tested centrifuges, built small high neutron flux reactors and got small amounts of plutonium extracted.

So, they learned Pu chemistry, what isotopes you get with different burns, and maybe some metallurgy.

They then set up centrifuge halls and played with an AVLIS (laser isotope separator).

They also ordered a 1GW reactor from the russians, and refined uranium oxide (aka “yellowcake”) into both uranium tetrafluoride, uranium hexafluoride and uranium metal.
Supposedly several tons of uranium oxide were processed.

Now: there are two ways to make bombs, at the basic level.
Get highly refined uranium-235 metal; or, fairly pure plutonium-239. In kilogram quantities.
U-235 bombs are simple and need not be tested. “A grad student could make one of those”.
Pu-239 bombs are notoriously fickle and are said to need testing (although maybe not so much any more…)

Read the whole thing.

Hofstadter’s Law says “It always takes longer than you think, even when taking into account Hofstadter’s Law.” For nuclear weapons, unfortunately, the word “longer” should be replaced by “shorter.” Historically, we always underestimate the proximity of other nations to full nuclear capability (unless we’re trying to cook up reasons to invade them). I don’t know what to do about it, but there’s every reason to believe that, left to its own devices, Iran will have some sort of bomb sooner rather than later.

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Just This

By W.S. Merwin.

When I think of the patience I have had
back in the dark before I remember
or knew it was night until the light came
all at once at the speed it was born to
with all the time in the world to fly through
not concerned about ever arriving
and then the gathering of the first stars
unhurried in their flowering space
and far into the story the planets
cooling slowly and the ages of rain
then the seas starting to bear memory
the gaze of the first cell at its waking
how did this haste begin this little time
at any time this reading by lightning
scarcely a word this nothing this heaven

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The language of Science

From a footnote on page 69 of Seth Lloyd’s new book Programming the Universe (about which more later):

I happened to be in [Nobel Laureate Norman Ramsey’s office in Paris] when two members of the Academie Francaise came to call. “Why, Professeur Ramsey,” they inquired, “is French not the international language of Science?” Ramsey immediately answered them in his fluent French, with a thick midwestern accent. Horrified, they dropped the subject. In fact, the French Academy of Sciences caused the adoption of English as the international language of science in the seventeenth century by being the first national academy to abandon the previous international language, Latin, and publish their proceedings in their own language. The English and the Germans followed suit. The rest is just an accident of history.

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