I was at a meeting in Princeton a short while ago, a small and focused workshop for people who are working on fundamental questions in inflationary cosmology. I hope to talk more about the meeting once the website is up (talks were not recorded), but here’s a simple question: what is the likelihood you would attach to the idea that some form of cosmic inflation occurred in the early universe?
My answer was 75%, which I thought was generous. It’s very hard to give a high probability to a speculative theory about what happened at energy scales to which we currently have no experimental access. But I found myself on the low end of opinions at the meeting, where the median was about 90% confidence. Of course, these are people who work on inflation professionally, and have chosen to do so. When I came home to ask the same question of my lunch crowd at Caltech, the answers were more like 25%.
An interesting glimpse into the non-unanimity of scientific opinion when it comes to untested theories. So, just for fun, let’s ask what your personal likelihoods are for the following theoretical ideas.
- Inflation
- Supersymmetry
- String theory
- Some form of Higgs boson
- Large extra dimensions
- WIMP dark matter
- Any non-cosmological-constant explanation for cosmic acceleration
I’m not defining these very carefully, and let’s posit that we’re not interested in weaseling about what the definitions mean. We’re asking what you think the probability is that, if you were to ask an omniscient being who knew everything about the workings of Nature whether these ideas were part of how the world works, would they answer in the affirmative. What do you think? (It’s helpful if you say a bit about what kind of perspective you are coming from.)
Chris– maybe I said something like that, but it doesn’t sound like me. My usual line is that the predictions of inflation that have thus far been verified are either very vanilla things that could easily come out of alternative model (flatness, scale-free perturbations) or things that aren’t really nailed down yet (deviations from scale-free-ness). I think inflation probably happened, but I don’t think we’re anywhere near knowing on the basis of observations.
“talks were not recorded”
What’s that all about??!!
What argument outweighs the fact that you can either present you idea to your peers or educate the wider public 1000 times more efficiently if you make videos?
Informed (I hope) layman. Chemistry, maths, currents teaching HS. At the 95% confidence level:
Inflation – 100% – pretty
Supersymmetry – 0% – too pretty
String theory – 0% – pretty messy
Some form of Higgs boson – 100% – simple
Large extra dimensions – 0% – fun, but nah
WIMP dark matter – 100% – simple
Any non-cosmological-constant explanation for cosmic acceleration – 0% – simple
Will you be making a chart showing the average affinities for each proposition, Sean? It would be interesting, even if not scientifically valid.
Jens – If you look at the bottom row of the spreadsheet I made, I’ve added a row of the average value people are giving. A few people I skipped because they had rather complex, conditional answers.
Currently:
Inflation: 70.30
Supersymmetry: 42.50
String theory: 26.67
Higgs Boson: 79.06
large extra dimensions: 10.47
WIMPs: 60.06
non-cosmological constant cosmic acceleration: 26.12
I’m really surprised by all the high numbers for WIMPs. Why not axions? What about sterile neutrinos?
I also have a semantic issue with the last question. I took it in the most restrictive sense, in that I would consider the various quintessence and other time-varying scenarios to be distinct from a cosmological constant (which has to be /constant/—duh!). The large numbers people are giving to a cosmlogical constant suggests to me that they may have a broader interpretation, such as “some energy density with negative pressure, as opposed to MOND or other dark energy alternatives.”
Is anyone REALLY serious that there’s 100% certainty that Einstein’s cosmological constant is the final word on dark energy?
Inflation: 90%
Supersymmetry: 50%
String theory: 35%
Some form of Higgs boson: 80%
Large extra dimensions: 5%
WIMP dark matter: 60% (but “some form of dark matter” would be 90%)
Any non-cosmological-constant explanation for cosmic acceleration: 10%
Not a physicist, just an engineer who enjoys reading science-related blogs/forums and devotedly worships the almighty Dr. Sheldon Cooper 🙂
Post-doc, interested in BSM physics but also working a lot on Calabi-Yau ‘stuff’.
Inflation: %75 (but really going on authority here, my knowledge of cosmology is rough)
Supersymmetry: %80 (weak scale, 60%)
String theory: %75
Higgs boson: %98
Large extra dimensions: .1%
WIMP dark matter: %50
Any non-Lambda accelerator: 5%
BSM phenomenology:
1. Inflation – 90%
2. Supersymmetry – 5%
3. String theory – 5%
4. Some form of Higgs boson – 99.9%
5. Large extra dimensions – 10%
6. WIMP dark matter – 70%
7. Any non-cosmological-constant explanation for cosmic acceleration – 10%
What argument outweighs the fact that you can either present you idea to your peers or educate the wider public 1000 times more efficiently if you make videos?
Not only that, they didn’t even allow most of the physicists who live in the same town to come in, even quite distinguished ones….
Nice poll. I’d be even happier to see a betting market for these.
1. Inflation – 70%
2. Supersymmetry – 20%
3. String theory – 20%
4. Some form of Higgs boson – 90%
5. Large extra dimensions – 5%
6. WIMP dark matter – 70%
7. Any non-cosmological-constant explanation for cosmic acceleration – 60%
(The last question is ambiguous, as described by King Cynic. What if the cosmological constant is related to the Higgs vev?)
8. E8 theory – 60%
(I guess that says who I am.)
Looking over peoples’ estimates, the variance in the responses is impressive. We live in interesting times.
greg, that spreadsheet you made is really disturbing.
Not because of the results themselves of course, just because you’re giving my humble layman gues…ehm opinions the same weight of those from the likes of Ethan Siegel – as well as other respectable people from the field.
Wow, I’m kinda flattened… 😉
1. Inflation – 90%
2. Supersymmetry – 10%
3. String theory – 10%
4. Some form of Higgs boson 99%
5. Large extra dimensions 10%
6. WIMP dark matter 75%
7. Any non-cosmological-constant explanation for cosmic acceleration 33%
I’m a condensed matter experimentalist, so consider me an outsider. Basic graduate physics education, a pedestrian’s interest in particle physics, and a willingness to read enough to occasionally tease my high-energy friends.
I made these guesses (and that’s a generous description) without looking those posted by others. My bias seems evident, though not too far from what it looks like others are posting. Things get worse if you were to ask for, “true and will this ever be observed by humans?” instead of just your query on the god hotline.
1. Inflation – 80%
2. Supersymmetry – 50%
3. String theory – 70% that it is reasonable approximation on some energy scale, not that it is a “final theory”.
4. Some form of Higgs boson – 99%
5. Large extra dimensions – 1%
6. WIMP dark matter – 60%
7. Any non-cosmological-constant explanation for cosmic acceleration – 1%
Me ? Observational extragalactic astronomer
1. Inflation – 90% (Very successfully converts a bunch of big cosmological problems into a couple of microphysics ones.)
2. SUSY – 25% (I’ll up this if anyone can give me a better argument than the stabilization of the weak scale. For coupling unification to be convincing, one first has to believe in the necessity of grand unification. Unification would be nice; but, it’s by no means a given a priori. And, arguments from mathematical beauty fail far to often to be convincing.)
3. String Theory – 10% as a predictive theory of everything, 60% as a tool in the manner of QFT
4. Some form of Higgs boson – 95% (Something has to unitarize WW scattering and provide the longitudinal polarization for the W and Z.)
5. Large extra dimensions – .0001% if this means macroscopic or nearly so, 5% if it includes anything significantly above Planck scale.
6. WIMP dark matter – 90%
7. Any non-cosmological-constant explanation for cosmic acceleration – 15% taking the narrowest definition of cosmological constant explanation
Grad student in particle phenomenology.
1. Inflation – 80%
2. Supersymmetry – 70%
3. String theory – 70%
4. Some form of Higgs boson – 90%
5. Large extra dimensions -80%
6. WIMP dark matter – 50%
7. Any non-cosmological-constant explanation for cosmic acceleration – 40%
I’m a grad student in GR, particularly higher dimensional black holes, so I’m highly in favour of 5.)
1. Inflation – 60%
2. Supersymmetry – 30%
3. String Theory – 30%
4. Some form of Higgs boson – 75%
5. Large extra dimensions – 10%
6. WIMP dark matter – 60%
7. Any non-cosmological-constant explanation… – 10%
I have vocational education in electronics (didn’t have the money for more education). I have always had a deep seeded fascination with any scientific endeavours but most especially in quantum physics. I have read the typical list of layman’s books on physics and theoretical physics. These are my uneducated guesses based on what I have read and what seems rational to me.
GR / QFT in curved space grad student.
1. Inflation – 90%
As instructed, this is just for the general paradigm. Plenty of room for devils in the details.
2. Supersymmetry – 30%
3. String theory – 25%
I do think anyone giving susy lower odds than ST should be disqualified.
4. Some form of Higgs boson – 90%
If including composites and so on. I suppose my bet is on the Higgs mechanism rather than the Higgs boson. The restriction to a single boson leaves me a pure agnostic; I’ve never heard a single compelling argument for that apart from parsimony of particles,.
5. Large extra dimensions – 5%
They’re not even pretty enough to want to believe in them, nevermind suggested by experiment.
6. WIMP dark matter – 60%
This question is much more specific than “inflationary paradigm” and “some form of higgs.” I’d be more enthusiastic if it were just “particulate dark matter,” as someone else also suggested.
7. Any non-cosmological-constant explanation for cosmic acceleration – 10%
Never explain with 2 parameters what you can explain with 1.
What does it mean to give %’s? How many multiverses in the landscape? wait,
if ST is not 100%right, how likely it is there’s a landscape and a universe where we can actually ask the question? ;p
Honestly, the hush-hush part of that meeting was really lame, I’m curious what was it discussed that wasn’t allowed to be heard by *outsiders*…
Observational stellar astronomer here:
1.Inflation—20%
2.Supersymmetry–20%
3.String theory==0%
4.Some form of Higgs boson-90%
5.Large extra dimensions-5%
6.WIMP dark matter–90%
7.Any non-cosmological-constant explanation for cosmic acceleration–10%
I’m a string theorist (liberal arts college faculty), trying not to overthink this:
1. Inflation: 70%
2. Supersymmetry: 40%
3. String theory: 25%
4. Some form of Higgs boson: 95%
5. Large extra dimensions: 0.1% (rounded up from 10^-16).
6. WIMP dark matter: 50%
7. Any non-cosmological-constant explanation for cosmic acceleration: 20%
You’re going to post some sort of summary (with histograms or at least standard deviations) eventually, right? 🙂
I’m a cosmologist.
1.Inflation – 90%
2.Supersymmetry – 25%
3.String theory – 10%
4.Some form of Higgs boson – 95%
5.Large extra dimensions – 25%
6.WIMP dark matter – 25%
7.Any non-cosmological-constant explanation for cosmic acceleration – 90%
Can anybody play?
OK, that’s me.
1. 85%
2. 75%
3. Don’t know
4. 85 %
5. Do not know
6. Some kind of cold or tepid dark matter – 85%. WIMP dark matter – don’t know.
7. 15%
Just as an aside, I’ve usually found “Physics by Democracy” to have a better than 50% chance of giving an incorrect answer when used in classes. 😉