Doomsday clock

It’s the 60th anniversary of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, which premiered in December, 1945, just a few months after atomic bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The goal of the magazine has always been simple, if somewhat ambitious: to save the world by working to minimize the threat of nuclear war. It came out of a time when physicists were central players in questions of international security.

The most famous product of the Bulletin is of course the Doomsday Clock, an iconic image that is far more famous than the magazine itself. The minute hand on the clock moves in response to the perceived danger of imminent global disaster. It’s fascinating to peek back at the timeline for the evolution of the clock, as it bounces back and forth in response to world events.

• 1947: Seven minutes to midnight. Chosen mostly for artistic reasons, apparently. The original conception didn’t include the idea that the clock would actually move to reflect developments in international security.
• 1949: Three minutes to midnight. The Soviet Union explodes its first atomic bomb.
• 1953: Two minutes to midnight. The US and USSR explode hydrogen bombs.
• 1960: Seven minutes to midnight. International cooperation to check the growth of nuclear weapons grows.
• 1963: Twelve minutes to midnight. The US and USSR sign the Partial Test Ban Treaty, the first international arms-control agreement. (For some reason, the Cuban Missile Crisis doesn’t seem to have really registered — possibly it came and went too quickly.)
• 1968: Seven minutes to midnight. France and China acquire nuclear weapons; arms stockpiles increase while development aid to developing nations languishes.
• 1969: Ten minutes to midnight. The US Senate ratifies the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
• 1972: Twelve minutes to midnight. The US and USSR sign the first Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT I).
• 1974: Nine minutes to midnight. Arms control talks stall; India develops a nuclear weapon.
• 1980: Seven minutes to midnight. Small wars and terrorist activities grow, while arms-control talks remain stuck.
• 1981: Four minutes to midnight. Terrorism and repression of human rights grows, along with conflicts in multiple theaters around the world.
• 1984: Three minutes to midnight. Arms race picks up steam.
• 1988: Six minutes to midnight. The US and USSR sign a treaty limiting intermediate-range nuclear weapons.
• 1990: Ten minutes to midnight. Democracy flourishes in Eastern Europe; Cold War ends!
• 1991: Seventeen minutes to midnight. The clock leaps dramatically backward as the Cold War remains over, and the US and USSR announce signficant cuts in nuclear stockpiles.
• 1995: Fourteen minutes to midnight. Turns out that the peace dividend wasn’t quite what it might have been, as arms spending continues at Cold War levels. Fear grows of proliferation of nuclear weapons from poorly-controled facilities in the former Soviet Union.
• 1998: Nine minutes to midnight. India and Pakistan go public with nuclear weapons.
• 2002: Seven minutes to midnight. The U.S. rejects a series of arms control treaties and announces its withdrawal from the ABM treaty. Significant concerns about proliferation of nuclear weapons to terrorists.

So we’re right back where we started. If you don’t agree with the positioning of the clock as decided upon by the Bulletin’s board, you can always consult the Rapture Index for an alternative take on the imminence of Armageddon.